The Blog-Health-o-Meter™ reads Wow.

Crunchy numbers

A Boeing 747-400 passenger jet can hold 416 passengers. This blog was viewed about 9,800 times in 2010. That’s about 24 full 747s.

In 2010, there were 124 new posts, not bad for the first year! There were 355 pictures uploaded, taking up a total of 126mb. That’s about 7 pictures per week.

The busiest day of the year was August 6th with 1,002 views. The most popular post that day was Is Adaptability More Important Than Art In Architecture?.

Where did they come from?

The top referring sites in 2010 were wordpress.com, facebook.com, huffingtonpost.com, decision-science.alltop.com, and qedre.com.

Some visitors came searching, mostly for maslow’s hierarchy of needs, the colosseum, maslow, charlotte nc unemployment rate, and wtc plaza.

Attractions in 2010

These are the posts and pages that got the most views in 2010.

Is Adaptability More Important Than Art In Architecture? August 2010
27 comments and 34 Likes on WordPress.com

Why Do We Make Such Bad Real Estate Choices? August 2010
25 comments and 13 Likes on WordPress.com

U.S. Cities Unemployment Rates – Charlotte, NC Still High July 2010
1 comment

Maslow Updated:Self-Actualization? August 2010

Puppy Mill Real Estate Generation June 2010
1 comment

In a recent article in Discover scientists learned that slime mould makes decisions the same way that humans do.  By studying slime mould preferences they gave the slime mold two options.  When they had nothing to compare their choices to, both options of food were selected equally.  In other words, they had no discernible preference.  But when they added a third option it changed their choices towards the other two.  Why?  It seems that adding a third option will make one of the other two more preferable.  All of a sudden one type of food appeared better relative to the third option.

Relativity is the strategy that we as humans use to make decisions.  Now suppose you are back at the same restaurant and this time the sommelier comes to you with three wine options.  One is $15, the second is $35 and the third is $125.  Studies by Dan Ariely and others have shown that we as humans will most likely change our choices.  All of a sudden the $15 wine seems too cheap.  The $125 is too expensive and the $35 bottle of wine seems like the right choice.

We go to a store and we see an inexpensive and a modestly priced sweater next to a high-priced sweater.  The comparison makes us think like slime mould and feel like that the modestly priced sweater is a better choice.

But is thinking like slime mould always the best choice?  I think it is if I am the seller and I have set the stage to manipulate your thinking.  These studies have been done on humans for decades.  In the 70′s it was called relative deprivation.  In Six Sigma they teach the importance of forgetting averages and measure customer satisfaction on a customer’s experience based on relativity.

But does this happen only in our purchases?  Do you think that maybe even our political choices or other decisions in life can be manipulated by slime mould thinking?  Maybe more than a passing mention of critical thinking skills is needed in order to get beyond slime mould thinking.  If we understand how innate relativity is in our decisions, we probably would be more disciplined to learn critical thinking skills and make sure that we taught them to our children and decision makers in our businesses.

So the next time you get into an argument with your Neanderthal neighbor,  give him/her three options and set them up to make the choice you want.  Without critical thinking skills they will be led down the path you want.

Practice critical thinking skills every day.  Teach them to your family, your children and the “deciders” in your business.  In the meantime the next time you are in an argument, agree that there are more than two sides to an argument and present the third option that makes your opinion look great.  It happens to us every day when we are purchasing something or listening to an argument by the professionals.  It is not called manipulation . . . in retail it is called “selling.”  In business and politics it is “PR.”

So you are in an argument with your Neanderthal neighbor?  Stop shouting.  Think of the slim mould.  Give him/her a third option!  They will slither where you want them to go.

Image via Wikipedia

“Nowadays in America, you have a smaller chance of swapping your lower income bracket for a higher one than in almost any other developed economy – even Britain on some measures. To invert the classic Horatio Alger stories, in today’s America if you are born in rags, you are likelier to stay in rags than in almost any corner of old Europe.”  quote from Edward Luce is the FT’s Washington bureau chief 

Luce takes a look a several families and their struggles.  One of the families is the Freemans.  He goes on to say:  “The slow economic strangulation of the Freemans and millions of other middle-class Americans started long before the Great Recession, which merely exacerbated the “personal recession” that ordinary Americans had been suffering for years. Dubbed “median wage stagnation” by economists, the annual incomes of the bottom 90 per cent of US families have been essentially flat since 1973 – having risen by only 10 per cent in real terms over the past 37 years. That means most Americans have been treading water for more than a generation. Over the same period the incomes of the top 1 per cent have tripled. In 1973, chief executives were on average paid 26 times the median income. Now the ­multiple is above 300.” 

The American Dream - Busted Elevators

“Statistics only capture one slice of the problem. But it is the renowned Harvard economist, Larry Katz, who offers the most compelling analogy. “Think of the American economy as a large apartment block,” says the softly spoken professor. “A century ago – even 30 years ago – it was the object of envy. But in the last generation its character has changed. The penthouses at the top keep getting larger and larger. The apartments in the middle are feeling more and more squeezed and the basement has flooded. To round it off, the elevator is no longer working. That broken elevator is what gets people down the most.”

Studs Terkel

Studs Terkel gave a voice to workers in his  bestselling book Working: People Talk About What They Do All Day and How They Feel About What They Do.  It is Labor Day Weekend.  Start of the football season.  Picnics.  Day off.  And here and there a publisher or a magazine will herald the greatness of the American Worker.  When you think about it, they will sound like a parent talking on behalf of  their speechless baby, as if the worker has no voice of his/her own. 

Studs Terkel wanted to write a book about working but give the voice to the workers themselves.  The year was 1974.  He sat down with a grocery store cashier and interviewed her about her job. He didn’t ask very many questions because he did not want to shape what she was going to say.  He just turned on a tape recorder and let her speak from her heart. She talked about the day-to-day things that she did as a grocery store cashier.  She talked about how it impacted her private life. When we as readers listen to her, we get a snapshot of what it is like to be a grocery cashier.  Probably something we may never have thought about if we have not listened to someone who actually does that work. 

Studs interviewed a bartender, a teacher, a pro athlete and dozens of other people from dozens of professions giving us snapshots of their lives, told in their own words.  These are not glossed over stories.  They each are given the freedom to say what they want, and Studs Terkel gave them a voice.  No parent or superior person talking for them.  No one framing the picture of who they are by asking this or that question or asking what do you think about this or that?  The portrait is their own. 

I was in college the first time I read Working and as I strolled through the gallery of unique self-portraits, it changed my view of many people and their work.  The words of Robert Acuna, a farm worker sums it up well when talking about his bosses, “That’s the worst thing, the way they treat you. Like we have no brains.” 

The year was 1974 and Studs Terkel made it his work to give workers a voice.  It is 2010.  Would a book about working be a best seller today? 

Here are some short quotes taken from Wikipedia from Working: People Talk About What They Do All Day and How They Feel About What They Do. 

Book One

Book One contains stories by a farmer, a farm worker, a farm woman, a deep miner and his wife, a strip miner, and a heavy equipment operator. Here is a sample: 

“Working in the fields is not in itself a degrading job. It’s hard, but if you’re given regular hours, better pay, decent housing, unemployment and medical compensation, pension plans–we have a very relaxed way of living. But the growers don’t recognize us as persons. That’s the worst thing, the way they treat you. Like we have no brains. They have only a wallet in their head. The more you squeeze it, the more they cry out” (Roberto Acuna, farm worker).

Book Two

“I never listen in on a phone conversation, but I’ll tell you what. I worked for Illinois Bell, and I don’t care who the operator is, the greatest thing is listening on phone calls. [Laughs] When you’re not busy. At the motel, no. At Bell, I did. If you work nights and it’s real quiet, I don’t think there’s an operator who hasn’t listened in on calls. The night goes faster” (Frances Swenson, hotel switchboard operator).

Book Three

Book Three has stories by a sanitation truck driver, a garbage man, a washroom attendant, a factory mechanic, a domestic, a janitor, a doorman, two policemen, an industrial investigator, a photographer, and a film critic. Here’s a sample: 

“I worked in a white area on the West Side–briefly. Being black, in plain clothes, people might mistake me for a burglar and shoot me. It’s better for me to be in a black area. Of course, people couldn’t mistake me there. [Laughs] Very few black officers work in white areas. They have a few, so they can say; ‘No longer are we segregated’” (Renault Robinson, policeman).

Book Four

Book Four tells the stories of two spot-welders, a utility man, a stock chaser, a plant manager, a general foreman, a local union president, two cabdrivers, a bus driver, an interstate truckdriver, a car hiker, and a car salesman. Here’s a sample: 

“I stand in the same spot, about two- or three-feet area, all night. The only time a person stops is when the line stops. We do about thirty-two jobs per car, per unit. Forty-eight units an hour. eight hours a day. Thirty-two times forty-eight times eight. Figure it out. That’s how many times I push the button” (Phil Stallings, spot-welder).

Book Five

Book Five narrates the tales of a barber, a hair stylist, a saleswoman, a dentist, a hotel clerk, a bar pianist, an elevator starter, an ex-salesman, a bank teller, an auditor, an organizer, an order filler in a shoe factory, a mail carrier, a gas meter reader, a supermarket box boy, a supermarket checker, a skycap, a felter in a luggage factory, a waitress, and two housewives. Here’s a sample: 

“You have to be terribly subservient to people. “Ma’am, can I take your bag?” “Can I do this?” It was a time when the grape strikers were passing out leaflets. They were very respectful. People’d come into the check stand, they’d say, ‘I just bought grapes for the first time because of those idiots outside.” I had to put their grapes in the bag and thank them for coming and take them outside to the car. Being subservient made me very resentful” (Brett Hauser, supermarket box boy).

Book Six

Book Six contains the stories of a bookbinder, a pharmacist, a piano tuner, a realty broker, a yacht broker, two stockbrokers, a project coordinator, a government relations coordinator, a process clerk, and an organizer. Here’s a sample: 

“I only enjoy working on books that say something. I know this is an anathema to people who insist on preserving books that are only going to be on the shelves forever–or on coffee tables. Books are for people to read, and that’s that. I think books are for the birds unless people read them” (Donna Murray, bookbinder).

Book Seven

Book Seven’s narratives involve those of a jockey, a baseball player, a sports press agent, a tennis player, a hockey player, a football coach, a radio executive, a factory owner, a bank audit department head, an ex-boss, the ex-boss’ daughter, an ex-president of a conglomerate/consultant, “Ma and Pa Courage,” and three retirees. Here’s a sample: 

“To be a jockey you must love the horse. There’s a lot of times when I lose my patience with him. There’s just certain horses that annoy you. There’s no two alike. They have personalities just like you and I do” (Eddie Arroyo, jockey).

Book Eight

Book Eight’s stories are about a copy boy, a publisher, a proofreader, a department store manager, a jazz musician, an executive, the director of a bakery cooperative, a hospital aide, a baby nurse, a public school teacher, an alternative school teacher, an occupational therapist, a patient’s representative, a practical nurse in an old people’s home, a memorial counselor, and a grave digger. Here’s a sample: 

“I usually wear myself some black sunglasses. I never go to a funeral without sunglasses. It’s a good idea because your eyes is the first thing that shows when you have a big emotion. Always these black sunglasses” (Elmer Ruiz, gravedigger).

Book Nine

Book Nine recounts the narratives of a tree nursery attendant, a carpenter/poet, an editor, an industrial designer, a nun to naprapath, an ex-salesman/ farmer, a lawyer, a librarian, a stone cutter, a service station owner, the service station’s son and partner, a steelworker, the steelworker’s son (a priest), an adult education teacher, a freight elevator operator, a policeman, and a fireman. Here’s a sample: 

“You recognize yourself as a marginal person. As a person who can give only minimal assent to anything that is going on in this society: ‘I’m glad the electricity works.’ That’s about it. What you have to find is your own niche that will allow you to keep feeding and clothing and sheltering yourself without getting downtown. [Laughs] Because that’s death. That’s really where death is” (Nora Watson, editor).

 Studies show that money robs people of their ability to savor pleasurable experiences. One group of people, for example, was shown a picture of money and then given a piece of chocolate. Another group was not shown the money but also given chocolate. The non-money group enjoyed their chocolate for 45 seconds, while the money group wolfed theirs down in a mere 32 seconds. 

Psychologist Jordi Quoidbach of the University of Liège in Belgium and his colleagues divided 374 adults, ranging from custodians to senior administrators, into two randomly assigned groups. The first group was shown a picture of a stack of money while the control group was shown the same picture but it was blurred beyond recognition. Then the participants were given psychological tests to measure their ability to savor and enjoy pleasant experiences. What is surprising is that just seeing money before tasting something can actually inhibit your ability to savor that food.  The results showed that people who had been shown the money scored significantly lower in their ability to enjoy something such as chocolate. 

According to Scientific American: “In other words, what money gives with one hand—access to pleasurable experience—it takes away with the other by robbing people of the ability to appreciate simple joys. Think about that the next time you are considering splurging at an expensive restaurant when you could be heading off to a picnic with a bottle of wine, crusty French bread, tangy cheese and, for dessert, a bite of chocolate.” 

yin-yang

Maybe the simplistic approach to money needs to be dispelled so that we begin to see the complexity of money.  There is a yin and a yang to money.  There are two sides of the coin to money.  The good is the access that it gives to us.  The bad is what it takes away from us. 

Maybe the next phase of capitalism is a deeper understanding of money enlightened by the sciences such as behavioral economics.  The yin and yang of money – it sure stops us from approaching it as an either/or argument or a good vs. bad.

Some East Asian countries are enjoying runaway house price booms.

Singapore has been a spectacular performer with 34% house price increases y-o-y to end-Q2 2010. Hong Kong and Australia have also seen strong y-o-y house price performances.

On the other hand, Europe is very mixed, with Latvia (up 9.4%) and Finland (up 9%) surging (though Latvia’s price rises have since stalled), while severe house price declines continue in Ireland, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Iceland, Russia, Poland, Croatia, Spain and Slovakia.

Ireland had the steepest price falls of all the countries covered.

Over the year to end-Q2 2010, 18 countries saw house price increases, while 18 countries saw price declines.

The last quarter’s figures are similar: 17 house price rises to 19 declines.

A momentum perspective:

• Only 6 countries saw bigger price decreases, or smaller increases, during the year from Q2 2009 to Q2 2010, than during the same period the previous year.
• However, 30 countries saw larger price increases, or less severe declines, than last year.

The Global Property Guide’s statistical presentation uses price changes after inflation, giving a more realistic picture than the more upbeat nominal figures usually preferred by real estate agents.

Nominal figures, which are more usually used, are shown in the second table.

Huge house price rises prompt intervention by Asian governments

House prices in Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China surged strongly during the year to Q2 2010.

Singapore had the highest increase among all countries surveyed by the Global Property Guide. House prices were up 34.03% over the year to end-Q2 2010, the highest recorded year-on-year increase in the country since 1995.

Hong Kong followed with an increase of 21.42% over the year to end-Q2 2010, a huge improvement over last year’s price decline of 6.96%. Taiwan’s house prices were up 11.51% over the same period. Residential property prices in Shanghai, China rose 5.78% during the year to end-Q2 2010. Chinahas reported strong price rises since mid-2009.

The region’s strong economic growth, low interest rates and increases in foreign demand fuelled skyrocketing house prices in these four countries, stoking fears of a property bubble. In June the International Monetary Fund warned that “the booming Asian real estate markets may pose risks to financial stability.

Governments have responded by implementing anti-bubble measures.

Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China have tightened credit supply by lowering the loan-to-value ratio. Singapore and Hong Kong have also increased land supplies. China increased the down payment requirement for second-home mortgages to 50%. Taiwan raised its interest rate to 1.375%, from a record-low of 1.25%.

Unlike their neighboring countries, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines’ property markets performed poorly. Political unrest in Thailand took its toll. In Q2 2010, Thai house prices were down 4.83% from a year earlier. However, Thailand’s house prices recorded an impressive 10.49% gain during the three months to end- June 2010.

Prices of condominium units in Makati, Philippines dropped 4.85% over the year to end-Q2 2010, while in Indonesia’s 14 main cities, prices were down 1.42% over the same period.

North America – snail’s pace recovery, declining home sales

US house prices fell 3.31% over the year to Q2 2010 (FHFA figures), but rose in the last quarter by 0.42% (seasonally and inflation-adjusted)—the first quarterly increase since Q2 2009, and the highest since 2007.

However, the American housing market is braced for a possible fall next quarter. Existing home sales slumped to 3.83 million units in July 2010, down a record 25.5% from last year, after the home buyer tax credit expired. Furthermore, unemployment has remained high, at 9.5% in July.

In Q2 2010, Canadian house prices were up 1.47% compared to Q2 2009, but rose only 0.07% during the latest quarter, as Canada also struggled with declining home sales. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported a quarterly decline of 13.3% in national home sales activities in Q2 2010, due to stricter mortgage regulations and expectations of an interest rate hike.

Patchy progress in Europe

Surprisingly, Latvia performed best among all European countries in the year to end-Q2 2010. Prices of standard-type apartments rose by an enormous 9.38% over the year to end-Q2 2010, based on prices published by Arco Real Estate.

Latvia had suffered the worst house price crash during the global economic crisis. Prices fell by 33.83% in 2008, and further plunged 52.81% in 2009. But in October 2009, house prices stopped falling and have since rallied, though that rally appears now to be petering out.

Finland, Norway and the United Kingdom posted strong increases in Q2 2010. House prices in Finland were up 8.89% over the year to end-Q2 2010. In Greater Helsinki, prices rose 12.6% over the same period. Finland began to recover from the crisis as early as Q3 2009, and has experienced strong house price rises since then.

In Norway, house prices were up 6.60% over the year to end Q2-2010. After falling by an average of 6% in 2008, Norway’s house prices started picking up in Q3 2009, thanks to all-time low interest rates.

Based on data from Nationwide, house prices in the United Kingdom were up 5.87% during the year to end-Q2 2010. This was the 3rd consecutive quarterly increase. Construction of new private houses was 17.7% higher in Q2 2010 compared to the same quarter last year. The UK’s economy expanded by 1.1% in Q2 2010, its highest growth since the rebound in Q4 2009.

Many European countries that have not yet recovered from the crisis nevertheless experienced slower house price falls. These markets include Denmark, Netherlands, France, Slovakia, Spain,Poland, Russia, Iceland, Bulgaria and Lithuania.

The house price downturn continues in Portugal, Croatia and Ireland. Ireland had the steepest house price drop among all countries in our table. In Q2 2010, Irish house prices were down 15.85% from a year earlier, and down 36.16% from its peak. Recovery is not expected this year, and according to the OECD, house prices in Ireland would have to fall by a total of 57% for the Irish be able to afford buying houses again.

Latin America and the Caribbean

The key Latin American housing markets have seen 3 years of strong price growth, and these price rises are widely said to continue. However, no official statistics are available, except in Colombia, where they are late.

Economic growth in Caribbean countries may fuel their housing markets. LAC GDP is expected to increase by 4% in 2010. No house price statistics are available for the Caribbean.

The Middle East slows

Over the year to end- Q2 2010, house prices in Israel were up 9.06%. However, house prices declined by 2.15% during the last quarter, possibly as a result of government measures.

In Dubai, UAE, house prices rose by 5.66% over the year to end-Q2 2010. But the emirate’s recovery may be short-lived, as house prices fell by 4.17% during the last quarter.

www.globalpropertyguide.com

Scientific American asks, “If the world is going to hell, why are humans doing so well?” 

For decades, apocalyptic environmentalists (and others) have warned of humanity’s imminent doom, largely as a result of our unsustainable use of and impact upon the natural systems of the planet. After all, the most recent comprehensive assessment of so-called ecosystem services—benefits provided for free by the natural world, such as clean water and air—found that 60 percent of them are declining. 

Yet, at the exact same time, humanity has never been better. Our numbers continue to swell, life expectancy is on the rise, child mortality is declining, and the rising tide of economic growth is lifting most boats. 

Cities provide a good example of this dichotomy.  They are a cost to the environment with their consumption yet they cause less of a human footprint.  So, is the net result that cities are good or bad? 

In the September issue of Scientific American they look at the  conundrum of environmental concerns increasing yet the  ”human development index“—an aggregate measure of life expectancy, literacy, educational attainment and per capita gross domestic product beloved by economists and wonks—has never been higher. “Human well-being is, on average, growing,” the authors write. 

“That said, one thing is clear: We live in the Anthropocene—an era when everything from the atmosphere to the layers of rock laid down for the future are dominated by human activities. Management is no longer a luxury. We had better get good at it.” 

Antropocene – an era dominated by human activities. 

What if a city, let’s say one that is 2 to 3 million in size, decided to take seriously their ability to manage and get good at it.  What would be a good cause to try to tackle? 

Hunger?  Management?  Could it tackle such an issue? 

Belo Horizonte at night

Brazil’s fourth largest city, Belo Horizonte, decided to tackle this issue.  This city once had 11 percent of its population living in absolute poverty and 20 percent of its children going hungry. Then in 1993 a newly elected administration declared food a right of citizenship. The newly elected officials took the stance that if you are too poor to buy food in the market—you are no less a citizen. The elected officials saw themselves as accountable to even the hungry. 

“The new mayor, Patrus Ananias—now leader of the federal anti-hunger effort—began by creating a city agency, which included assembling a 20-member council of citizen, labor, business, and church representatives to advise in the design and implementation of a new food system. The city already involved regular citizens directly in allocating municipal resources—the “participatory budgeting” that started in the 1970s and has since spread across Brazil. During the first six years of Belo’s food-as-a-right policy, perhaps in response to the new emphasis on food security, the number of citizens engaging in the city’s participatory budgeting process doubled to more than 31,000.” (quote from Yes Magazine)

What is the cost? 

“Around $10 million annually, or less than 2 percent of the city’s budget. That’s about a penny a day per Belo resident. 

“Behind this dramatic, life-saving change is what Adriana calls a ‘new social mentality’—the realization that ‘everyone in our city benefits if all of us have access to good food, so—like health care or education—quality food for all is a public good.’ 

“The Belo experience shows that a right to food does not necessarily mean more public handouts (although in emergencies, of course, it does).  It can mean redefining the ‘free’ in ‘free market’ as the freedom of all to participate. It can mean, as in Belo, building citizen-government partnerships driven by values of inclusion and mutual respect.” 

A former manager within this city agency, Adriana Aranha, explained “I knew we had so much hunger in the world. But what is so upsetting, what I didn’t know when I started this, is it’s so easy. It’s so easy to end it.” 

We live in the Anthropocene—an era when everything from the atmosphere to the layers of rock laid down for the future are dominated by human activities. Management is no longer a luxury. We had better get good at it. 

Real Estate, architecture, city planning, etc. etc.  It is about doors, walls, roofs, streets.  It is about managing how we as humans live in this environment -what comes and goes, what is let in or kept out.  We had better get good at it! 

.

Image via Wikipedia

You would not expect to see liberals supporting policies that McCain took during the campaign regarding real estate.  But that is what we see from David Woolner at NewDeal2.0 (the blog of the Roosevent Institute). He argues that what we need is a revival of the Homeowners Loan Corporation, a New Deal era institution that was essentially tasked with massive housing refis — getting the banks out of the process.

Says Woolner: Equally important, the HOLC’s strategy of buying out existing mortgages and replacing them with new ones based, not on the typical short-term mortgage agreement of the time (usually a non-amortized loan of seven to ten years terminating with a balloon payment), but rather on the far more affordable amortized mortgage of between twenty-five and thirty years, would eventually become standard practice and help revolutionize the mortgage industry. The HOLC obtained its financing by borrowing from the Treasury and from capital markets, and by the time it had closed its books in the early 1950s, it had turned a small profit.

So will Obama attempt something like that? Who knows. The administration has downplayed the possibility of some big October Surprise to bail out homeowners.

Who supported the HOLC? John McCain. He specifically proposed this idea in a debate in October 2008. He didn’t go into too much detail of how his HOLC would work, and we don’t recall it coming up again during the campaign. But with Obama’s HAMP working like garbage, it’s worth wondering whether McCain’s fondness for an old new deal program might be what we’d have now if the election went differently.

¹FDIC issued a combined estimate for First Heritage Bank and First National Bank of Nevada
²FDIC issued a combined estimate of $807 million for all subsidiaries of Security Bank Corp.
³Combined assets or FDIC fund cost of all banks acquired by U.S. Bank on 10/30/09
Source: FDIC